Samedi 3 novembre 2012 6 03 /11 /Nov /2012 13:58

Des élections US un jour de tempête ?


121030_uq54r_eau-pont-newyork_g.jpg Les météorologues n'excluent pas la formation d'une autre tempête dans l'océan Atlantique, dont l'arrivée dans l'Est américain va coïncider avec l'élection présidentielle, ainsi que compliquera le travail de reconstruction après l'ouragan «Sandy», indique la chaîne de télévision Current TV. 

Selon les experts, dans la nuit du 6 novembre, où se déroulera l'élection présidentielle américaine, une zone de basse pression pourrait se former dans l'océan Atlantique. Un tel phénomène atmosphérique pourrait causer des vents forts, des pluies et même des tempêtes de neige pendant la journée dans les États du nord-est des États-Unis. 

 

 

Sources: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd&version=6&fmt=reg et Voix dela Russie

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
322 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2012

VALID 12Z SUN NOV 04 2012 - 12Z THU NOV 08 2012

...NOR'EASTER POSSIBLE FOR MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES BY
ELECTION DAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY...

GENERAL FLOW PATTERN/MODEL PREFERENCE
=====================================
A DEEP CYCLONE DROPPING DOWN THE WEST COAST OF CANADA WILL HELP
AMPLIFY A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN US AND MAINTAIN A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AND SERN US.  THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON THESE IDEA. 
PRELIM HPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE PRESSURES/FRONTS AND 500 MB PROGS
WERE PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET AND
GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO A
BLEND OF THE 00 UTC ECMWF WITH 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES
THEREAFTER.  THAT SOLUTION MAINTAINED REASONABLE CONTINUITY AND
UTILIZED GUIDANCE THAT OFFERED MAX SOLUTION CLUSTERING. 

HPC FINAL PROGS THOUGH HAVE BEEN MANUALLY ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR
12 UTC MODEL TRENDS TOWARD DIGGING ADDITIONAL REINFORCING ENERGY
INTO AN AMPLIFYING BASE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
SERN US TUE...OPENING THE DOOR MORE TO LINK DEEPER COASTAL LOW
EMPHASIS TO TRAILING ENERGY EMERGENCE OFF THE EASY COAST MORE INTO
WED/THU.  THIS TREND SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING UPSTREAM RIDGE
AMPLITUDE.

WEATHER IMPACTS
===============
AS A DEEP CYCLONE MOVES DOWN THE WEST COAST OF CANADA...PACIFIC
MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE NORTHWEST WHICH ALLOWS FOR SKIRMISHES OF
RAINS/HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A FEW
BATCHES OF LIGHTER PRECIPITATION ARE MEANWHILE EXPECTED TO STREAK
THROUGH THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK AS ENERGY DIGS IN BEHIND THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH.  SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THAT REGION OF THE COUNTRY.

GUIDANCE STILL HAVE TIMING/EMPHASIS ISSUES BUT NOW BETTER AGREE
THAT DEEPER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR LATER
TUE INTO THU AS A FRONTAL WAVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST MOVES SLOWLY
OFFSHORE AND UP OFF THE EAST COAST.  THIS WOULD BRING BEST
ORGANIZED RAINS FROM THE ERN MID-ATLANTIC TO ERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
TRACK IN THIS VEIN OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWS ACROSS
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS THE LOW WRAPS INLAND. 
INCREASING WINDS ALONG COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND COASTAL
MID-ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY ONWARD MAY LEAD TO SOME COASTAL
FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION.

ROTH/SCHICHTEL


Par wikistrike.com - Publié dans : Terre et climat
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